Arrow IFPA Series: Note 7 of 8: Criterion 4: Timber economic benefits


  • John Nelson


riterion and indicators, forest economics, forest-level modelling, risk assessment, timber supply


This extension note is the seventh in a series of eight that describes a set of tools and processes developed to support sustainable forest management planning and its pilot application in the Arrow Timber Supply Area. It demonstrates how forest-level modelling can be used to forecast criteria and indicators of timber economic benefits and how sensitive these indicators are to changes in the constraints affecting the timber harvesting land base and harvest practices. In an economic sense, forests are assets with the potential to generate wealth through a sustainable flow of benefits. Managing this asset to maximize economic returns and to minimize the risk of loss to natural disturbances are important objectives. This extension note develops these concepts and identifies indicators that can measure economic performance. A harvest simulation model is used to forecast harvest volume, growing stock, and delivered wood cost for the Sustainable Forest Management Pilot Basecase Analysis. A sensitivity analysis shows how harvest volume changes as management assumptions change. Harvest simulation models can help to identify strategic trade-offs between value and risk.